Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 13.848759 15.695833 17.808600 20.429172 23.627842 27.452563 32.445472
2025-03-16 11.176638 13.377779 16.106133 19.813571 24.847356 31.647186 41.914292
2025-03-23 9.836746 12.200164 15.290536 19.764890 26.331365 36.080336 52.698814
2025-03-30 8.635040 10.972468 14.143997 18.948271 26.416146 38.343021 60.802212
2025-04-06 7.662762 9.915119 13.057868 17.987886 26.009260 39.613071 67.533455
2025-04-13 6.938188 9.116669 12.229922 17.264650 25.796583 41.086837 75.175263
2025-04-20 6.982568 9.407847 13.013125 19.150431 30.311375 52.408290 110.180118
2025-04-27 6.723009 9.217277 13.029265 19.762608 32.667201 60.276871 142.819301
2025-05-04 6.224407 8.618602 12.336173 19.045400 32.311419 62.079734 159.198757
2025-05-11 6.022658 8.460295 12.334368 19.553062 34.518672 70.703096 207.231801
2025-05-18 5.701557 8.087426 11.939560 19.277113 35.004404 75.151415 244.786068
2025-05-25 5.422547 7.761771 11.594997 19.050796 35.554221 80.016545 291.738363
2025-06-01 5.212165 7.546578 11.444606 19.233112 37.216090 89.336640 384.958406
2025-06-08 4.903582 7.149817 10.944379 18.654390 36.939556 92.533808 449.441604
2025-06-15 4.702188 6.918301 10.718474 18.610663 38.004561 100.949171 586.229656
2025-06-22 4.421170 6.534926 10.187566 17.859840 37.068470 101.646502 655.446255
2025-06-29 4.144562 6.145113 9.620109 16.975528 35.627136 99.883346 695.300001
2025-07-06 3.917129 5.829160 9.170776 16.308548 34.685771 99.896682 766.429783
2025-07-13 4.007598 6.067564 9.773921 18.045798 41.002913 135.916586 1911.234058
2025-07-20 3.947608 6.036069 9.857304 18.608496 44.027679 160.053610 3809.361389
2025-07-27 3.757587 5.761821 9.446721 17.949196 42.980054 160.735266 4635.987412
2025-08-03 3.699078 5.722022 9.497549 18.415955 45.815648 188.139766 11984.814555
2025-08-10 3.570878 5.548556 9.268198 18.162291 46.109829 199.399897 23181.942911